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Stanford Steve and The Bear: Conference championship college football picks, bets and nuggets
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIAL"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica preview Week 14 of the 2022 college football season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on during conference championship week.
Odds and lines are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 2-2. Season: 41-22-1)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 2-1. Season: 28-22-1)
The plays
Saturday 4 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
The Bear: I don't think this one will be close at all. If Jayden Daniels is not 100% and his ability to move is limited, forget about it. Even after winning the national title last year, the fact UGA didn't win the SEC title matters to the team and their fans. It's basically a road game for LSU, and I just think the Georgia defense and an opportunity for Stetson Bennett to add to his legacy will be too much.
Pick: Georgia -17.5
Friday, 8 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
The Bear: We've seen Pac-12 teams flop in this spot with so much at stake time and time again. It happened to Utah a few years ago, and now the Utes can return the "favor." Dalton Kincaid was a huge matchup problem in the first meeting and while SC will certainly make some adjustments, that might allow Utah to find other ways to move the ball down the field against an SC defense that, unless the opponent is turning the ball over, hasn't been very good statistically. Maybe Caleb Williams is that good to nearly single-handedly get SC to the playoff, but it won't be easy against the Utes.
Pick: Utah +2.5
Stanford Steve: If there is one team you don't want to have to play twice in the Pac-12, it's Utah. And the way Kyle Whittingham handled his news conference this week, suggesting Williams has already won the Heisman Trophy and USC has already won the Pac-12, makes me think Coach Whitt and his squad love the idea of being the underdog in this spot. I expect Utah to play very well on offense and get more stops than the Trojans. We'll take the underdog and throw them in a three-team teaser.
Pick: Tease Utah to 11.5
Saturday, noon ET on ABC, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Stanford Steve: Tell me if you've heard this before: If there is one team you don't want to have to play twice in the Big 12, it's Kansas State. This is the 11th time that the Big 12 title game features a regular-season rematch. Of the 10 previous instances, six were sweeps and four were split. Everyone remembers the first game when K-State averaged over 10 yards a play in the first half and then TCU took a stand and led the comeback, which has been the story of their season. We'll take the underdog and throw them in a three-team teaser.
Pick: Tease Kansas State to 11.5
Boise State Broncos (-3, 54) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
The Bear: Boise won the regular-season meeting against a Jake Haener-less Bulldogs team. Haener is back now and I don't like the way the Broncos are playing heading into this game; they squeaked by Wyoming and nearly lost to Utah State, albeit the game meant nothing to Boise. But Fresno has the best player on the field and revenge, so I'll be grabbing the points.
Pick: Fresno State +3
Saturday, 8 p.m., Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
Stanford Steve: This feels exactly like last year's title game. I wondered about how Michigan would respond after its monster win over Ohio State, knowing a spot in the playoff was there with a win in this game. The Wolverines ended up dismantling Iowa and getting that playoff berth. This year I feel the same exact way: How will Michigan respond after putting so much into a game last week? But, more importantly, I look at the opponent in Purdue and know the Boilermakers can complete forward passes more consistently than Iowa. No offense, Hawkeyes. So, we'll throw Purdue in the three-team teaser also.
Pick: Tease Purdue to 25.5
Pick: Three-team, nine-point teaser -- Utah +11.5, Kansas State +11.5, Purdue +25.5
The Bear's money-line parlay
Like some big favorites but don't want to lay the points? Here are some to parlay together.$100 returns $101
Last Week: -100
Season: -290
Buffalo Bulls -450
Michigan Wolverines -850
Georgia Bulldogs -950
Clemson Tigers -300
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line
Last Week: 1-1, +0.3 unitsSeason: 13-37, -17.15 units
Fresno State Bulldogs +135
Utah Utes +130
Bear bytes
No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 14 LSU TigersIn the past two years, Georgia has faced six top-15 teams not named Alabama. The Bulldogs have allowed 13, 3, 11, 13, 0 and 3 points in those games and have won each of them by an average of 24.0 PPG. All six went under the total, and Georgia covered the spread in five of them.
Since 2018, Georgia has faced 16 top-15 teams not named Alabama. The game has gone under in 14 of them.
No. 4 USC Trojans vs. No. 11 Utah Utes
Since 2017, Utah has been an underdog 10 times. In eight of them, the Utes either won or lost by a field goal or less.
No. 9 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 23 North Carolina Tar Heels
No underdog has won the ACC title game since 2011. Favorites have won and covered each of the past five, winning by 24, 24, 45, 32 and 35.
No. 2 Michigan Wolverines vs. Purdue Boilermakers
This is the fifth straight year there has been a double-digit spread in the Big Ten championship game. Now you know why divisions need to go.
Other odds and ends:
- In the past two years, underdogs have won seven of the nine conference championship games in Group of 5 conferences.
- Last year, two underdogs won Power 5 conference title games outright -- Alabama and Baylor. From 2017 to 2020, underdogs went 2-18 straight up in Power 5 conference title games.
- Since Florida State upset Virginia Tech as a 14-point underdog in the 2005 ACC championship game, there have been 22 Power 5 title games with double-digit spreads. None of those 22 have lost, but ATS-wise they have been far from a cinch, going 13-9.
- Even in the Group of 5, double-digit favorites have thrived. In the CFP era, there have been 16 double-digit favorites. Only one has lost -- Buffalo vs. Ball State in 2020. Those teams went 7-9 ATS.
- Georgia and Michigan are favored by 16-plus points. Power 5 conference title favorites this big are 14-2 with the only two losers coming in the Big 12 -- 1996 Nebraska vs. Texas, 1998 Kansas State vs. Texas A&M.
- Since 2016, there have been 11 conference title games with a favorite of three points or fewer. The underdog won eight outright.
